Prediction markets
Many moons ago I wrote an e-mail to the BBC's Ashley Highfield, Director of Future Media and Technology, suggesting turning the CelebDaq engine inwards and using it to let staff participate in markets on possible strategy or even which programmes should be commissioned. I never even got a reply which seems ironic, given the high regard in which BBC execs appear to hold Google in in terms of companies worth emulating, and the fact that Google has been using prediction markets to good effect.
We had a similar reaction of disinterest from a large American Investment Bank, based on the assumption that their analysts were so good at predicting outcomes (!) that why would "THEY" need the opinions of "THEM out THERE". Then you only have to look at Goldman and Deutsche Bank who have used them to dramatic effect. It really is a amazing that organisation's ego can get in the way of what seems so obvious!
Posted by: Ed | January 07, 2008 at 02:11 PM
A friend of mine did an MBA at INSEAD in the ealry 1990s; his class had a "market" in each lecturer, and they would "buy" or "sell" (virtual) stock in the lecturer, even during lectures.
Apparently, the lecturers had no idea this was going on.
Given "the wisdom of crowds", this could be a useful management technique - if only to show managers what their reportees think of them.
Posted by: Patrick | January 07, 2008 at 08:17 PM
I really like Patrick's suggest of a real-time feedback reading on managers. Not only does it give a whole new meaning to 360° feedback :-) but it also would teach people a great deal about communication, as they in turn tried to "game" the responses.
I am a big fan of this kind of feedback, where systems are consciously gamed and you learn what works through experience.
Posted by: Bruce Stewart | January 07, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Try again, Euan. Now you're outside the BBC, you'll be taken more seriously. (-:
Posted by: Jim Easterbrook | January 09, 2008 at 10:06 AM
Sadly I reckon you are right Jim!
Posted by: Euan Semple | January 09, 2008 at 11:16 AM
Not exactly a prediction market, and you all probably have known about this since forever, but here's RateMyProfessors.com ... 6,000 schools, 1 million professors, 6 million opinions (a potential market to be made, methinks)
Posted by: Jon Husband | January 09, 2008 at 06:34 PM
Euan, I am continually astounded at (i) how few people in business know about prediction markets and (ii) how even fewer will use them. Like you, I think they are very powerful tools.
Still not clear on why the antipathy....
Posted by: alan p | January 15, 2008 at 08:07 PM